金融与风险管理
Finance and Risk Management
- 主办单位:東方陽光出版社有限公司
- ISSN:3080-9320(P)
- ISSN:3080-9339(O)
- 期刊分类:经济管理
- 出版周期:月刊
- 投稿量:0
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粮食主产区家庭农场风险管理问题研究
Research on Risk Management Issues of Family Farms in Major Grain-Producing Areas
发布时间：2026-07-21
作者: 王卓 :吉林农业大学经济管理学院 吉林长春; WANG Zhuo :Jilin Agricultural University, Changchun;
摘要: 在乡村振兴战略全面落地、农业现代化加速推进的时代背景下，家庭农场作为新型农业经营主体的核心组成部分，是保障国家粮食安全、推动农业规模化集约化发展的关键载体。当前我国粮食主产区家庭农场数量持续增长、经营规模不断扩大，但农业天然的弱质性与规模化经营的叠加效应，让家庭农场面临多重经营风险，严重制约其可持续发展。本文以粮食主产区家庭农场为研究对象，采用文献分析法、实地调研法、AHP-FCE模糊综合评价法，系统梳理家庭农场发展现状，精准识别自然、市场、技术、融资、政策五大核心经营风险，构建风险评价指标体系量化分析各类风险影响权重。研究表明，市场波动风险、自然灾害风险是影响家庭农场经营的首要风险，政策、融资、技术风险次之。基于实证分析结果，针对性提出多维度风险防控与管理优化对策，旨在完善家庭农场风险管理体系，提升农场抗风险能力与经营效益，为粮食主产区农业高质量发展、筑牢国家粮食安全防线提供理论参考与实践支撑。
Abstract: Against the backdrop of the full implementation of the rural revitalization strategy and accelerated advancement of agricultural modernization, as a core type of new agricultural business entities, family farms serve as a vital carrier for safeguarding national food security and advancing large-scale and intensive agricultural development. While the number and operational scale of family farms in China’s major grain-producing areas keep expanding continuously, the inherent vulnerability of agriculture coupled with large-scale operation has exposed such farms to diverse operational risks, greatly restricting their sustainable development.Taking family farms in major grain-producing areas as the research object, this paper adopts methods including literature review, field investigation, as well as the AHP-FCE fuzzy comprehensive evaluation approach. It systematically sorts out the development status of family farms and accurately identifies five major operational risks: natural risk, market risk, technical risk, financing risk and policy risk, before establishing a risk evaluation index system to quantitatively calculate the weight of each risk factor.Empirical results reveal that market fluctuation risk and natural disaster risk rank as the top threats to family farm operation, followed by policy, financing and technical risks respectively. Based on empirical findings, this study puts forward multi-dimensional countermeasures for risk prevention, control and management optimization. The research aims to improve the risk management system of family farms, enhance their risk resistance and operational benefits, and provide theoretical references and practical support for high-quality agricultural development in major grain-producing regions and the consolidation of China’s national food security.
关键词: 粮食主产区；家庭农场；经营风险；风险管理；AHP-FCE评价法
Keywords: major grain-producing areas; family farms; operational risks; risk management; AHP-FCE evaluation method