金融与风险管理
Finance and Risk Management
- 主办单位:東方陽光出版社有限公司
- ISSN:3080-9320(P)
- ISSN:3080-9339(O)
- 期刊分类:经济管理
- 出版周期:月刊
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新型城镇化投融资期限错配：测度、成因与风险效应
Maturity Mismatch in Investment and Financing for New-Type Urbanization: Measurement, Causes, and Risk Effects
发布时间：2026-07-21
作者: 刘仕琦 :内蒙古财经大学 内蒙古呼和浩特; LIU Shiqi :Inner Mongolia University of Finance and Economics, Hohhot;
摘要: 针对新型城镇化投融资中普遍存在的“短贷长投”期限错配问题，本文以2015-2024年127家地市级融资平台平衡面板数据为样本，构建期限错配缺口测度模型，运用面板固定效应模型检验其成因与风险效应。实证发现：财政压力扩大会显著加大期限错配缺口，金融发展水平提升则能有效缩小该缺口；期限错配缺口每增加1年，城投债信用利差上升约18.5个基点，证实了显著的风险溢价效应。异质性分析表明，区县级平台期限错配程度及风险效应均高于省级和市级平台。本文为防范化解地方隐性债务风险提供了实证依据。
Abstract: Addressing the prevalent "short-term borrowing for long-term investment" maturity mismatch in the investment and financing of new-type urbanization, this paper constructs a measurement model for the maturity mismatch gap using a balanced panel dataset of 127 municipal-level local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) from 2015 to 2024. A panel fixed-effects model is employed to examine its causes and risk effects. The empirical results reveal that increased fiscal pressure significantly widens the maturity mismatch gap, while an improved level of financial development effectively narrows it. Furthermore, every one-year increase in the maturity mismatch gap leads to a rise of approximately 18.5 basis points in the credit spread of LGFV bonds, confirming a significant risk premium effect. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that county-level platforms exhibit a higher degree of maturity mismatch and stronger risk effects compared to provincial and municipal platforms. This study provides empirical evidence for preventing and resolving the risks associated with local implicit debt.
关键词: 新型城镇化；期限错配；测度模型；财政压力；风险效应
Keywords: new-type urbanization; maturity mismatch; measurement model; fiscal pressure; risk effects